Your models are all based on the presumption that the social fabric will remain more or less intact. Like during WO I & II. Only then can innovation come to fruition.

My guess is less optimistic. Fear of the unknown and economical loss-aversion driven by the thermodynamic downwards spiral in the post-fossil fuel economy will lead to predictable human herd behaviour. Add to that the climate change effects (wet bulb, etc resulting in hunger and regional conflicts) and it becomes even more predictable: mass immigration leading to a backlash along tribal lines.

The ruling elites will respond by increasing their totalitarian oppression, resulting in either revolt or pacification.

The long-term directionality too is clear: steady emancipation of the global population resulting in a more equal (re-) distribution of resources and power (more commons/community-based) but the question is how long will that take? 100 or 1000 years? And at what price? The WW1+2 transformation from an agricultural aristocracy to an industrial democratic society cost close to 100 million lives and came with large-scale asset destruction... So what awaits us?...