I think that you are missing the Black Swan in the long wave. The current centuries-running geopolitical tide is rapidly turning on Western hegemony and could easily flip events in an instant. Like waves crashing when they run into low waters. The ride down from Ray Dalio's empire cycle is bumpy and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are perfect low-water opportunities to induce radical tectonic shifts. My guess is that these are going to be exploited.